Contact

My wide ranging research largely entails using diplomatic history and statistics to understand several overlaping aspects of international relations:

(1) The benefits of cheap signalling in diplomacy, such as expressing a verbal willingness to negotiate, promises to link issues during alliance negotiations, requesting a mediator, or joining a weak international organization. How do such ``low cost'' measures impact international cooperation, if at all?

(2) Economic aspects of international security, such as tying trade to alliances, central banks facilitating war finance, economic disparity causing border instability, and trade compelling civil war intervention.

(3) `K-adic' processes, meaning events involving k>2 actors, such as multilateral wars or large trade treaties. This research, funded by the National Science Foundation, led to the creation of k-adic data.

(4) Alliance politics, meaning how states form, commit to, and terminate a military alliance. Given their historical importance, alliances are ideal for exploring a host of issues related to international cooperation.

(5) The international politics of democratic transitions, meaning how international organizations (such as the OAS or NATO) do (or do not) facilitate democratic consolidation in transitional democracies. This topic is important for understanding the current role of many military alliances.

Additionally, I seek to develop new statistical methods for international relations data. This research has appeared in Political Analysis.

My working papers are listed in the "IN PREPARATION" section of my CV. Below are links to my published papers and replication files. Please contact me wth any questions.

Poast, Paul and Johannes Urpelainen. ``Fit and Feasible: Why Democratizing States Form, not Join,
International Organizations.'' International Studies Quarterly. Forthcoming March 2014.