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Research & Writing

(journal articles & chapters)

(column/op-eds/social media)

Book Manuscripts

(Click on a cover to find out more about a book, including replication files and reviews)

Econ of War.jpg
Economics of War

(translated into French, Japanese, and Chinese)

Org Dem.jpg
Organizing Democracy
Arguing About Alliances

(Featured on Freakeconomics Podcast)

(Co-winner of the 2020 Lepgold Prize)

Research Papers

Below are links to papers published in academic journals and edited volumes (please don't hesitate to contact me for replication materials). I have also published a number of academic-style pieces in online-only platforms, such for War on the Rocks and Foreign Affairs.

2024 and Forthcoming

Maxwell, Megan and Paul Poast. "Realist Theory and Armenian Survival" in Georgi Asatryan (ed) Armenia and the Community of States. The Pursuit of development after the wars in Post-Soviet space. Bloomsbury. Forthcoming.

Becker, Jordan; Tim Haesebrouck, and Paul Poast. "Setting Targets: Abatement Cost, Vulnerability, and the Agreement of NATO’s Wales Pledge on Defense Investment." Journal of Peace Research. Forthcoming.

Poast, Paul. "Cooperation, Contestation, and Context: The Study of International Relations and the War in Ukraine" International Studies Review  [in ISA Presidential Forum Real Struggles, High Stakes in Contemporary and Emerging Conflict]. Forthcoming.

Poast, Paul. "Prediction in International Relations is Hard, Sometimes: Commentary on Tetlock et al." Futures & Foresight Science. March 2024. [LINK]

Becker, Jordan; Sarah Kreps, Paul Poast, and Rochelle Terman. "Transatlantic Shakedown: Presidential Shaming and NATO Burden Sharing." Journal of Conflict Resolution. February-March 2024: 195-229. [LINK]


​​Poast, Paul. "The Economics of National Security" in Dan Reiter (ed) Understanding War and Peace. Cambridge University Press. 2023: 175-203. 

Chinchilla, Alexandra and Paul Poast. "Good for Democracy? Evidence from the 2004 NATO Expansion" [Reprint of 2020 International Politics article updated in light of Russia-Ukraine War] in ​​James Goldgeier and Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson (eds). Evaluating NATO Enlargement. Palgrave. 2023: 341-371. [LINK]


Poast, Paul. "No Free Lunches: What the United States Gains from Its Alliances." Security Studies [Exchange on Estimating Alliance Costs]. June-July 2022: 510-532. [LINK].

Gottemoeller, Rose; Kathryn Hedgecock, Justin Magula, and Paul Poast. "Engaging with Emerged and Emerging Domains: Cyber, Space, and Technology in the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept." Defense Studies [Special Issue on NATO's Strategic Concept]. Winter 2022: 516-524. [LINK]

Driver, Darrell; Linde Desmaele, Seth Johnston, and Paul Poast. "Return to Realism? NATO and Global Competition." Defense Studies [Special Issue on NATO's Strategic Concept]. Winter 2022: 497-501. [LINK]


​​Gonzalez, Elsy and Paul Poast. "What Kind of data are appropriate for my question?" in Joseph Huddleston and Patrick James (eds). Handbook of Research Methods in International Relations. Edward Elgar. 2022. [LINK]

Kelly, Robert E., and Paul Poast. "The Allies Are Alright: Why America Can Get Away with Bullying Its Friends." Foreign Affairs. March/April 2022: 131-143. [LINK]


Cappella Zielinski, Rosella and Paul Poast. "War Finance and Sovereign Debt." in Sara McLaughlin Mitchell and John Vasequez (eds).  What Do We Know About War? Third Edition. Rowman and Littlefield. 2021: 260-271. [LINK]

Reiter, Dan and Paul Poast. "The Truth About Tripwires." Texas National Security Review. Summer 2021: 33-54. [LINK]

Cappella Zielinski, Rosella and Paul Poast. "Supplying Allies in War." Journal of Global Security Studies [Special Issue on Political Economy of Global Security]. March 2021. [LINK]


Chinchilla, Alexandra and Paul Poast. "Good for Democracy?  Evidence from the 2004 Expansion of NATO." International Politics [Special Issue on Legacy of NATO Expansion]. June 2020: 471-490. [LINK]

Shea, Patrick and Paul Poast. "Leaders and Default." International Studies Quarterly. June 2020: 406-418. [LINK]

Carter, David and Paul Poast. "Barriers to Trade: How Border Walls Affect Trade Relations." International Organization. Winter 2020: 165-185. [LINK]

Norrlof, Carla and Paul Poast. "Introduction." International Studies Perspectives [Symposium: Global Monetary Order and the Liberal Order Debate]. May 2020: 109-153. [LINK]

Croteau, Sabreena and Paul Poast. "Dollars for Oil" International Studies Perspectives [Symposium: Global Monetary Order and the Liberal Order Debate]. May 2020: 109-153. [LINK]


Fazal, Tanisha and Paul Poast. "War is Not Over: What the Optimists Get Wrong About Conflict." Foreign Affairs. November/December 2019: 74-83. [LINK]

​Bennett, Scott; Paul Poast and Allan Stam. ``NewGene: An Introduction for Users.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. July 2019: 1579–1592. [LINK]

Poast, Paul. ``Beyond the Sinews of War: The Political Economy of Security as a Subfield.'' Annual Review of Political Science. Vol. 22. 2019: 223–239. [LINK]


Gartzke, Erik and Paul Poast. ``Empirically Assessing The Bargaining Theory of War: Potential and Challenges.'' in William Thompson (ed.) Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory. (New York, NY: Oxford University Press). 2018. [LINK]

Shea, Patrick and Paul Poast. ``War and Default.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. October 2018: 1876-1904. [LINK]

DiGiuseppe, Matthew and Paul Poast. ``Arms and Democratic Allies.'' British Journal of Political Science. October 2018: 981-1004. [LINK]

Chinchilla, Alexandra C., and Paul Poast. "Defense Institution Building from Above? Lessons from the Baltic Experience." Connections. 17, no. 3. 2018: 61-71. [LINK]


Carter, David and Poast, Paul. ``Why Do States Build Walls?'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. February 2017: 239-270. [LINK]

Horowitz, Michael C., Paul Poast, and Allan C. Stam. ``Domestic Signaling of Commitment Credibility: Military Recruitment and Alliance Formation.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. September 2017: 1682-1710. [LINK]


Fordham, Benjamin and Poast, Paul. ``All Alliances are Multilateral: Rethinking Alliance Formation in the International System.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. August 2016: 840-865. [LINK]

Poast, Paul. ``Dyads are Dead, Long Live Dyads: The Limits (but not Rejection) of Dyadic Designs in International Relations Research.'' International Studies Quarterly. June 2016: 369-374. [LINK]

Lupu, Yonaton and Paul Poast. ``Team of Former Rivals: A Multilateral Theory of Nonaggression Pact Formation.'' Journal of Peace Research [Special issue on Networked International Politics] May 2016 53: 344-358. [LINK]

Kaoutzanis, Christodoulos; Paul Poast, and Johannes Urpelainen. ``Not Letting `Bad Apples' Spoil the Bunch: Democratization and Forming International Organizations with Strict Accession Rules.'' Review of International Organizations. December 2016: 399-418. [LINK]


Levy, Jack S.; Michael K. McKoy, Paul Poast, and Geoffrey P.R. Wallace. ``Backing Out or Backing In? Commitment and Consistency in Audience Costs Theory.'' American Journal of Political Science. October 2015: 988-1001. [LINK]

Poast, Paul. ``Lincoln's Gamble: Fear of Intervention and the Onset of the American Civil War.'' Security Studies. September 2015: 502-527. [LINK]

Poast, Paul and Johannes Urpelainen ``How International Organizations Support Democratization: Preventing Authoritarian Reversals or Promoting Consolidation?'' World Politics. January 2015: 72-113. [LINK]

Poast, Paul. ``Central Banks at War.'' International Organization. Winter 2015: 63-95. [LINK]


Wiens, David; Paul Poast, and William Roberts Clark. ``The Political Resource Curse: An Empirical Re-Evaluation.'' Political Research Quarterly. December 2014: 783-794. [LINK]


Poast, Paul and Johannes Urpelainen. ``Fit and Feasible: Why Democratizing States Form, not Join, International Organizations.'' International Studies Quarterly. December 2013: 831-841. [LINK]

Poast, Paul. ``Can Issue Linkage Improve Treaty Credibility? Buffer State Alliances as a `Hard Case''' Journal of Conflict Resolution. October 2013: 739-764. [LINK]

Clark, WIlliam Roberts; Sona N. Golder and Paul Poast ``Monetary Institutions and the Survival of Democratic Leaders.'' International Studies Quarterly. September 2013: 556-567. [LINK]

Poast, Paul. ``Issue Linkage and International Cooperation: An Empirical Investigation.'' Conflict Management and Peace Science. July 2013: 286-303. [LINK]

Mebane, Walter and Paul Poast. ``Causal Inference without Ignorability: Identification with Nonrandom Assignment and Missing Treatment Data.'' Political Analysis. Spring 2013: 233-251. [LINK]


Poast, Paul. ``Does Issue Linkage Work?  Evidence from European Alliance Negotiations, 1860 to 1945.'' International Organization. Spring 2012: 277-310. [LINK]

2011 and Earlier

Poast, Paul. ``(Mis)Using Dyadic Data to Analyze Multilateral Events.''  Political Analysis. Autumn 2010: 403-425. [LINK]

Poast, Paul. ``Winning the Bid: Analyzing the International Olympic Committee's Host City Selections.'' International Interactions. January-March 2007: 75-95. [LINK]

Poast, Paul. ``The Wall and Maastricht: The Role of Exogenous Shocks on the Initiation of the EMU and EPU Intergovernmental Conferences.''  Journal of European Integration. September 2004: 281-307. [LINK]

General Audience

In addition to my academic work, I also regularly write about international affairs and foreign policy for a broader audience.  This includes pieces in media outlets such as The Atlantic and Washington Post, as well as my weekly column for World Politics Review (you can find all of my columns here). I have also written pieces for think tanks, such as The Modern War Institute at West Point, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Finally, there are my widely read "threads" on Twitter/X (you can find a curated search of all my threads here), which I also share on LinkedIn.

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